CONFIDENTIAL | INFORMATION | APRIL 2026

Quantitative trading software built around the retatrutide catalyst sequence.

Single stock. Single thesis. Statistically validated. Tretidal is licensed trading software built on proprietary catalyst data and one conviction: retatrutide will be the largest pharmaceutical launch of the decade. You run it. You trade your own account. We never touch your capital.

UNDERLYING
NYSE: LLY
CATALYST WINDOW
36 months
STRATEGY
14 factor quant
ACCESS
By licence
SCROLL
LLY$900.23 +0.4%
TRIUMPH 428.7 percent weight loss
MARKET CAP$1T first pharma
CONSENSUS$1,250 12mo
HIGH TARGET$1,500 Leerink
GOLDMAN SACHS$1,260 buy
NDA FILINGQ4 2026
FDA DECISIONLate 2027
5YR RETURN+399 percent
LLY$900.23 +0.4%
TRIUMPH 428.7 percent weight loss
MARKET CAP$1T first pharma
CONSENSUS$1,250 12mo
HIGH TARGET$1,500 Leerink
GOLDMAN SACHS$1,260 buy
NDA FILINGQ4 2026
FDA DECISIONLate 2027
5YR RETURN+399 percent
THE OPPORTUNITY

One drug. One stock. A finite catalyst window.

Retatrutide is the most anticipated pharmaceutical launch in a decade. Eli Lilly owns it outright. The window to position ahead of the full catalyst sequence is open now and closes on approval.

01 / 03
THE DRUG

Retatrutide

A triple agonist peptide that delivered nearly 29 percent body weight loss in Phase 3. Roughly double the best result from Wegovy and a quarter more than Mounjaro.

02 / 03
THE ASSET

Eli Lilly

First pharma company to a one trillion dollar market capitalisation. Up 399 percent over five years. Wholly owns retatrutide. No partners, no royalty split.

Eli Lilly
03 / 03
THE SOFTWARE

Tretidal

A 14 factor quantitative strategy concentrated on a single stock, delivered as licensed software. Built to actively trade the catalyst sequence and target two to four times outperformance over passive ownership.

$270B
Obesity market
By 2035
28.7%
Phase 3 weight loss
TRIUMPH 4
$1T
Lilly market cap
First pharma to reach it
+67%
Upside to high target
$1,500 versus $900 today
THE DRUG

The Phase 3 numbers are outside the range of anything else on the market.

Retatrutide is the first triple agonist in clinical development. It activates GLP 1, GIP, and glucagon receptors simultaneously, opening three distinct billion dollar markets through a single molecule.

Efficacy that reframes the category.

Published Phase 3 readouts place retatrutide materially ahead of incumbent GLP 1 therapies on every metric investors care about. The TRIUMPH program continues with seven more readouts throughout 2026.

Body weight loss (TRIUMPH 4)28.7%
Liver fat reduction (Phase 3 substudy)86%
Prediabetes reversal72%
Systolic BP reduction14 mmHg

Three receptors. Three distinct markets.

Retatrutide is the only drug targeting all three metabolic receptors in a single molecule. Combined addressable market grows from $149B today to over $308B by 2035.

Obesity and diabetes (GLP 1)$63B
Metabolic syndrome (GIP)$61B
MASH and fatty liver (Glucagon)$25B
Total addressable by 2035$308B+

"Lilly's three pronged obesity drug hits goal in large diabetes trial. Retatrutide delivered weight loss of up to 71.2 pounds and significant osteoarthritis pain relief."

BIOPHARMA DIVE | MARCH 2026
THE SOFTWARE

Quantitative. Concentrated. Catalyst aware.

Tretidal is not a fund and not a managed account. It is licensed software running a single stock, single thesis strategy that reads the retatrutide catalyst stream in real time and outputs positioning. You decide what to do with it.

Built for one mega trend.

Fifth generation trading architecture: thesis aligned AI, catalyst aware, sentiment fused. The engine ingests clinical, regulatory, microstructure, sentiment, macro, and proprietary signal domains to make position decisions around each catalyst event.

The strategy has been applied to 6.3 years of LLY daily price data with realistic transaction costs modelled. Out of sample validation uses a 2 year rolling training window tested against the next 6 months. Monte Carlo resampling runs the strategy 30 times on resampled pharma price behaviour.

Why not just buy Eli Lilly?

Passive ownership captures the drift. Active positioning captures the drawdowns and the re-ratings. The Tretidal model targets two to four times outperformance versus buy and hold by systematically positioning ahead of readouts and de-risking binary events. Users execute that positioning in their own brokerage, on their own risk framework.

Backtest window6.3 years
Validated factors14 buckets
Raw signals90,000+
Factor significance thresholdp < 0.10
CATALYST SEQUENCE

A 36 month re rating pathway.

Most catalyst trades are binary bets on a single event. Retatrutide offers a sequence of high probability catalysts over 24 plus months. Each readout reduces binary risk and lifts the price floor.

Q2 TO Q4 2026
Seven more TRIUMPH Phase 3 readouts
Each positive readout reduces binary risk. Historically drives 10 to 15 percent price uplift per event.
Q4 2026 / Q1 2027
NDA submission to FDA
Formal regulatory pathway begins. The stock typically re rates on filing acceptance.
LATE 2027 / EARLY 2028
FDA approval decision
The defining catalyst. Approval unlocks commercial revenue and drives sell side target revisions. Leerink street high target of $1,500 assumes approval on timeline.
2028 ONWARDS
Global commercial rollout
International approvals, manufacturing ramp, patient penetration. Post approval analyst scenarios support $3,000 plus.
2028 TO 2029
Ex US regulatory approvals
EMA, PMDA, TGA. Expands the addressable patient population by roughly three times.
THE CONSENSUS

The market is already paying attention.

Financial media, sell side analysts, clinical researchers, and macro traders are converging on the same thesis. Below is a curated sample of third party coverage with links to original sources.

CNBC 19 MAR 2026
Eli Lilly's next generation obesity drug retatrutide clears first late stage diabetes trial
CNBC Health & Science ↗
BIOPHARMA DIVE MAR 2026
Lilly's three pronged obesity drug hits goal in large diabetes trial
BioPharma Dive ↗
CLINICAL TRIALS ARENA JAN 2026
Lilly's triple G agonist boasts 28.7% weight loss in Phase III trial
Clinical Trials Arena ↗
HCPLIVE MAR 2026
Retatrutide delivers A1C reduction and weight loss in Phase 3 TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial
HCPLive ↗
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 2026
Triple agonist retatrutide represents a paradigm shift in metabolic disease treatment
Scientific American ↗
STAT NEWS 2026
Eli Lilly's pipeline dominance grows as retatrutide delivers across multiple Phase 3 endpoints
STAT News ↗
THE GUARDIAN 2026
New triple hormone drug retatrutide could reshape the global obesity treatment landscape
The Guardian ↗
FIRSTWORD PHARMA DEC 2025
TRIUMPH-4 results position retatrutide as best in class across weight loss and osteoarthritis pain
FirstWord Pharma ↗
MORGAN STANLEY 1 APR 2026 · BUY
12 month price target $1,313. Retatrutide positions Lilly as the dominant platform in metabolic disease.
Morgan Stanley Research
GOLDMAN SACHS 1 APR 2026 · BUY
12 month price target $1,260. Triple agonist mechanism opens three distinct billion dollar markets simultaneously.
Goldman Sachs Research
LEERINK PARTNERS APR 2026 · BUY
12 month price target $1,500. Retatrutide is the most important pipeline asset in large cap pharma.
Leerink Partners via TipRanks
BERNSTEIN APR 2026 · BUY
12 month price target $1,150. Data continues to differentiate versus the GLP-1 class.
Bernstein via TipRanks
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS MAR 2026 · OUTPERFORM
12 month price target $1,175. TRANSCEND data reinforces best in class metabolic profile across all three receptor pathways.
BMO Capital Markets Research
BARCLAYS MAR 2026 · OVERWEIGHT
12 month price target $1,200. Retatrutide positions Lilly for a second decade of metabolic dominance. Peak sales above $50B.
Barclays Equity Research
TRUIST SECURITIES FEB 2026 · BUY
12 month price target $1,100. Triple agonist mechanism is the clearest path to $40B+ peak annual revenue in pharma history.
Truist Securities via TipRanks
CONSENSUS (44 ANALYSTS) APR 2026
Mean 12 month price target $1,250. Street high $1,500. 39 of 44 analysts rate BUY or equivalent.
TipRanks Consensus
ELI LILLY IR MAR 2026
Retatrutide demonstrated significant reductions in A1C and weight in first Phase 3 diabetes trial (TRANSCEND-T2D-1)
Eli Lilly Investor Relations ↗
ELI LILLY IR DEC 2025
Retatrutide delivered weight loss of up to 71.2 lbs and significant osteoarthritis pain relief in TRIUMPH-4
Eli Lilly Investor Relations ↗
NATURE (PUBMED) 2025
Phase 3 data: 28.7% mean body weight reduction at 48 weeks, 86% liver fat reduction, 72% prediabetes reversal
Nature / PubMed ↗
TRIUMPH PROGRAM 2025 TO 2026
Seven more Phase 3 TRIUMPH readouts pending. Each positive readout reduces binary risk and historically drives 10 to 15 percent price uplift per event.
ClinicalTrials.gov
TRIUMPH-3 (MASH) 2026
Phase 3 trial evaluating retatrutide in metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis (MASH). 86% liver fat reduction observed in earlier data.
ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
TRIUMPH-5 (SLEEP APNOEA) 2026
Phase 3 trial in obstructive sleep apnoea. Addresses a $12B market where weight loss has shown dramatic improvements in AHI scores.
ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
TRIUMPH-7 (CV OUTCOMES) 2026 TO 2027
Cardiovascular outcomes trial. Positive result would open a $61B metabolic health market and remove the largest remaining regulatory question.
ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 2026
Only triple agonist (GIP + GLP-1 + glucagon) in Phase 3. 28.7% weight loss vs 15% Ozempic and 22.5% Mounjaro. No direct competitor in pivotal trials.
Eli Lilly Pipeline Data
TBPN tweet about retatrutide and Andrew Huberman
@tbpn on X · 389K views · ft. Andrew Huberman on retatrutide
WOLF Financial tweet about Eli Lilly reaching 1 trillion
@WOLF_Financial on X · 8.3K views · LLY first pharma to $1T valuation
Real Peptides tweet about retatrutide trial results
@realpeptides on X · 854K views · 86% liver fat reduction, 72% prediabetes reversal
Jonah Lupton tweet about retatrutide
@JonahLupton on X · Lifetime revenues could exceed $500B+
GeniusThinking tweet about Claude AI and Eli Lilly
@GeniusGTX on X · AI agent predicted FDA approval and bought LLY
RentYourStocks retatrutide before and after
@RentYourStocks on X · 923K views · 22lbs lost in 29 days on retatrutide
ANDREW HUBERMAN MAR 2026 · TBPN PODCAST
Huberman Lab host calls retatrutide the peptide that is about to change everything. One third body weight loss in six months with muscle retention.
@hubabormanlab · Huberman Lab Podcast
THE PEPTIDE LIST 2026
Everyone is talking about retatrutide for weight loss (28.7%). Almost nobody is talking about what it does to your liver. More than 80% reduction in liver fat. Over 90% normalisation rates. 100 million Americans have fatty liver disease.
@PeptideList on X · Featured in @JonahLupton thread
FITCAP APR 2026
Retatrutide is the biggest cheat code there is in the health, wellness and longevity industry and it is not even close.
@fitcapdefi on X · Featured in @realpeptides thread
THE CLAUDE PORTFOLIO APR 2026
Breaking: Claude was right. Yesterday, the Agents invested in Eli Lilly $LLY because of a potential FDA approval for their oral Ozempic. FDA approved. Portfolio up 2.82% on the day.
@theaiportfolios on X · $1.2M AI managed portfolio
BLOOMBERG NOV 2025
Eli Lilly becomes the first pharmaceutical company to hit a $1 trillion valuation. The surge has lifted the founding family's private foundation to a record $100 billion in assets.
Bloomberg via @WOLF_Financial
PATIENT COMMUNITY APR 2026
194lbs to 172lbs in 29 days on 1mg retatrutide. Before and after photos going viral across fitness and peptide communities. 923K views on a single post.
r/retatrutide · r/peptides · X/fitness communities
Additional coverage: PharmExec, Endpoints News, Fierce Pharma, Reuters Health, Barron's, Seeking Alpha. All analyst targets are third party opinions sourced from public research notes and TipRanks (as at April 2026). Social posts are attributed to their original authors and shown as screenshots with engagement metrics. Tretidal is not affiliated with any source cited above. News links open in a new tab to the original publisher.
SOCIAL COMMENTARY

The conversation is everywhere.

Independent creators, clinicians, and finance commentators are covering the retatrutide thesis. Tap to play.

THE PRODUCT

Proprietary engine. Your execution.

Tretidal is software, not a financial service. The engine and the catalyst dataset are ours. The account, the capital and the trading decisions are yours.

01
The engine
Fourteen validated factor buckets, 90,000 plus raw signals, proprietary catalyst scoring and position sizing logic. Not a wrapper on public indicators.
02
The data
Proprietary catalyst dataset covering the full retatrutide sequence, cross referenced against clinical, regulatory, microstructure, sentiment and macro inputs. Refreshed daily inside the software.
03
Your execution
You trade in your own brokerage on your own risk framework. We never hold your capital, never execute on your behalf, and never take a share of your returns.
04
Your access
Sophisticated users only, at our discretion, under a written licence agreement. Setup fee plus recurring subscription. Commercial terms in the Product Overview.

Algorithmic trading around pharmaceutical catalysts is a proven, repeatable strategy. RTW Investments returned +76 percent in 2025 trading pharma catalysts. Soleus Capital returned +47 percent on healthcare event driven strategy. ML models achieve 75 to 87 percent accuracy predicting FDA price reactions.

SOURCES: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR | NATURE SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | CNBC
ACCESS ENQUIRIES

Request the Product Overview.

Access to Tretidal is not open. Licences are granted selectively to sophisticated users who trade their own capital. Setup fee plus recurring subscription, with full commercial terms disclosed in the Product Overview.

What you will receive.

Qualified enquiries receive the full Product Overview, historical backtest methodology, factor library summary, licence terms, and a scheduled walkthrough with the team.

  • Full Product Overview under NDA
  • Backtest methodology and Monte Carlo detail
  • Factor library overview and statistical validation
  • Licence terms, setup fee and subscription pricing
  • Direct walkthrough of the software with the team
Sophisticated users only. Access is discretionary. All enquiries handled confidentially. Response within 48 hours.

Thank you.

Your enquiry has been received. A member of the Tretidal team will respond within 48 hours with next steps and the Product Overview under NDA.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

Please read carefully.

Tretidal is a software product licensed to sophisticated users. It is not a financial product and this website is not an offer of financial services. By continuing to read or engage with any content below, you acknowledge that you understand the risks associated with trading equities and derivatives using algorithmic strategies, and that all trading decisions and outcomes are your own.

NATURE OF THE PRODUCT
Tretidal is a software product licensed to sophisticated users for use in their own trading. It is not a financial product within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), it is not a managed investment scheme, and it does not constitute financial product advice, personal advice, or general advice. Tretidal does not hold, custody, or execute against user funds. Users are solely responsible for the trading decisions they make using the software and for the outcomes of those decisions. Nothing on this website constitutes an offer of financial services or an inducement to acquire a financial product. Prospective users must consult their own independent legal, financial, and tax advisers before licensing or using the software.
LICENSING AND ACCESS
Access to Tretidal is granted under a written software licence agreement, to sophisticated users only, at Tretidal Pty Ltd's sole discretion. Access requires completion of onboarding, acceptance of the licence terms, and payment of the applicable setup and subscription fees. Tretidal reserves the right to refuse or withdraw access for any reason. The licence is non-exclusive, non-transferable, and terminable in accordance with its terms. No part of the software, model output, proprietary dataset, or underlying reasoning may be redistributed, resold, sublicensed, published, or reverse engineered. Tretidal Pty Ltd does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence and does not require one to license software; it does not provide financial product advice, dealing, or managed discretionary account services.
DATA, MODEL OUTPUT AND FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
Signals, catalyst scores, position sizing suggestions and reasoning generated by Tretidal are the output of a proprietary model based on data available at the time of generation. Model outputs are provided for user consideration only. They are not recommendations, projections, or guarantees of future performance, and users must independently verify all model outputs before acting on them. All analyst price targets referenced on this website (including those attributed to Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Leerink Partners, Bernstein, and others) are sourced from publicly available third party research and represent those analysts opinions as at the dates indicated. They are not Tretidal's projections and should not be interpreted as such. These targets may change without notice and may not be achieved. This website also contains forward looking statements regarding market size, clinical trial outcomes, and regulatory timelines. These involve substantial risks and uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to differ materially. Past performance of any asset or strategy is not indicative of future results.
TRADING RISK
Trading equities, options and derivatives involves substantial risk of loss, including the potential loss of all capital deployed. The value of positions can go down as well as up. Users who act on Tretidal model outputs do so in their own brokerage accounts, under their own control, and entirely at their own risk. Tretidal makes no guarantee that use of the software will produce positive returns. Specific risks include but are not limited to: clinical trial failure or delay, regulatory rejection, model degradation, software or data malfunction, cybersecurity breach, market volatility, liquidity constraints, execution slippage, brokerage counterparty risk, and changes in law or regulation. Users should not trade with capital they cannot afford to lose, and are responsible for compliance with all applicable tax, regulatory and reporting obligations in their jurisdiction. This website does not purport to contain all information a prospective user may require. Any indicated backtest figures are hypothetical results from applying the Tretidal strategy to historical Eli Lilly daily price data. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations.