Tretidal Investment Partners

THE OPPORTUNITY

One drug. One stock. A finite catalyst window.

Retatrutide is the most anticipated pharmaceutical launch in a decade. Eli Lilly owns it outright. The window to position ahead of the full catalyst sequence is open now and closes on approval.

01 / 03

THE DRUG

Retatrutide

A triple agonist peptide that delivered nearly 29 percent body weight loss in Phase 3. Roughly double the best result from Wegovy and a quarter more than Mounjaro.

02 / 03

THE ASSET

Eli Lilly

First pharma company to a one trillion dollar market capitalisation. Up 399 percent over five years. Wholly owns retatrutide. No partners, no royalty split.

Eli Lilly

03 / 03

THE VEHICLE

Tretidal

A 14 factor quantitative strategy concentrated on a single stock. Built to actively trade the catalyst sequence and target two to four times outperformance over passive ownership.

$270B

Obesity market

By 2035

28.7%

Phase 3 weight loss

TRIUMPH 4

$1T

Lilly market cap

First pharma to reach it

+67%

Upside to high target

$1,500 versus $900 today

THE DRUG

The Phase 3 numbers are outside the range of anything else on the market.

Retatrutide is the first triple agonist in clinical development. It activates GLP 1, GIP, and glucagon receptors simultaneously, opening three distinct billion dollar markets through a single molecule.

Efficacy that reframes the category.

Published Phase 3 readouts place retatrutide materially ahead of incumbent GLP 1 therapies on every metric investors care about. The TRIUMPH program continues with seven more readouts throughout 2026.

Body weight loss (TRIUMPH 4)28.7%

Liver fat reduction (Phase 3 substudy)86%

Prediabetes reversal72%

Systolic BP reduction14 mmHg

Three receptors. Three distinct markets.

Retatrutide is the only drug targeting all three metabolic receptors in a single molecule. Combined addressable market grows from $149B today to over $308B by 2035.

Obesity and diabetes (GLP 1)$63B

Metabolic syndrome (GIP)$61B

MASH and fatty liver (Glucagon)$25B

Total addressable by 2035$308B+

"Lilly's three pronged obesity drug hits goal in large diabetes trial. Retatrutide delivered weight loss of up to 71.2 pounds and significant osteoarthritis pain relief."

BIOPHARMA DIVE | MARCH 2026

THE VEHICLE

Quantitative. Concentrated. Catalyst aware.

Tretidal is not another diversified long-only pharma fund. It is a single stock, single thesis vehicle that reads the retatrutide catalyst stream in real time and positions accordingly.

Built for one mega trend.

Fifth generation trading architecture: thesis aligned AI, catalyst aware, sentiment fused. The engine ingests clinical, regulatory, microstructure, sentiment, macro, and proprietary signal domains to make position decisions around each catalyst event.

The strategy has been applied to 6.3 years of LLY daily price data with realistic transaction costs modelled. Out of sample validation uses a 2 year rolling training window tested against the next 6 months. Monte Carlo resampling runs the strategy 30 times on resampled pharma price behaviour.

Why not just buy Eli Lilly?

Passive ownership captures the drift. Active management captures the drawdowns and the re ratings. Tretidal targets two to four times outperformance versus buy and hold by systematically positioning ahead of readouts and de risking binary events.

Backtest window6.3 years

Validated factors14 buckets

Raw signals90,000+

Factor significance thresholdp < 0.10

CATALYST SEQUENCE

A 36 month re rating pathway.

Most catalyst trades are binary bets on a single event. Retatrutide offers a sequence of high probability catalysts over 24 plus months. Each readout reduces binary risk and lifts the price floor.

Q2 TO Q4 2026

Seven more TRIUMPH Phase 3 readouts

Each positive readout reduces binary risk. Historically drives 10 to 15 percent price uplift per event.

Q4 2026 / Q1 2027

NDA submission to FDA

Formal regulatory pathway begins. The stock typically re rates on filing acceptance.

LATE 2027 / EARLY 2028

FDA approval decision

The defining catalyst. Approval unlocks commercial revenue and drives sell side target revisions. Leerink street high target of $1,500 assumes approval on timeline.

2028 ONWARDS

Global commercial rollout

International approvals, manufacturing ramp, patient penetration. Post approval analyst scenarios support $3,000 plus.

2028 TO 2029

Ex US regulatory approvals

EMA, PMDA, TGA. Expands the addressable patient population by roughly three times.

THE CONSENSUS

The market is already paying attention.

Financial media, sell side analysts, clinical researchers, and macro traders are converging on the same thesis. Below is a curated sample of third party coverage with links to original sources.

CNBC 19 MAR 2026

Eli Lilly's next generation obesity drug retatrutide clears first late stage diabetes trial

CNBC Health & Science ↗

BIOPHARMA DIVE MAR 2026

Lilly's three pronged obesity drug hits goal in large diabetes trial

BioPharma Dive ↗

CLINICAL TRIALS ARENA JAN 2026

Lilly's triple G agonist boasts 28.7% weight loss in Phase III trial

Clinical Trials Arena ↗

HCPLIVE MAR 2026

Retatrutide delivers A1C reduction and weight loss in Phase 3 TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial

HCPLive ↗

SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 2026

Triple agonist retatrutide represents a paradigm shift in metabolic disease treatment

Scientific American ↗

STAT NEWS 2026

Eli Lilly's pipeline dominance grows as retatrutide delivers across multiple Phase 3 endpoints

STAT News ↗

THE GUARDIAN 2026

New triple hormone drug retatrutide could reshape the global obesity treatment landscape

The Guardian ↗

FIRSTWORD PHARMA DEC 2025

TRIUMPH-4 results position retatrutide as best in class across weight loss and osteoarthritis pain

FirstWord Pharma ↗

MORGAN STANLEY 1 APR 2026 · BUY

12 month price target $1,313. Retatrutide positions Lilly as the dominant platform in metabolic disease.

Morgan Stanley Research

GOLDMAN SACHS 1 APR 2026 · BUY

12 month price target $1,260. Triple agonist mechanism opens three distinct billion dollar markets simultaneously.

Goldman Sachs Research

LEERINK PARTNERS APR 2026 · BUY

12 month price target $1,500. Retatrutide is the most important pipeline asset in large cap pharma.

Leerink Partners via TipRanks

BERNSTEIN APR 2026 · BUY

12 month price target $1,150. Data continues to differentiate versus the GLP-1 class.

Bernstein via TipRanks

ELI LILLY IR MAR 2026

Retatrutide demonstrated significant reductions in A1C and weight in first Phase 3 diabetes trial (TRANSCEND-T2D-1)

Eli Lilly Investor Relations ↗

ELI LILLY IR DEC 2025

Retatrutide delivered weight loss of up to 71.2 lbs and significant osteoarthritis pain relief in TRIUMPH-4

Eli Lilly Investor Relations ↗

NATURE (PUBMED) 2025

Phase 3 data: 28.7% mean body weight reduction at 48 weeks, 86% liver fat reduction, 72% prediabetes reversal

Nature / PubMed ↗

TRIUMPH PROGRAM 2025 – 2026

Seven more Phase 3 TRIUMPH readouts pending. Each positive readout reduces binary risk and historically drives 10 to 15 percent price uplift per event.

ClinicalTrials.gov

TBPN tweet about retatrutide and Andrew Huberman

@tbpn on X · 389K views · ft. Andrew Huberman calling retatrutide a trillion dollar drug

WOLF Financial tweet about Eli Lilly reaching 1 trillion

@WOLF_Financial on X · 8.3K views · LLY first pharma to $1T valuation

Real Peptides tweet about retatrutide trial results

@realpeptides on X · 854K views · 86% liver fat reduction, 72% prediabetes reversal

@JonahLupton on X · Lifetime revenues could exceed $500B+

GeniusThinking tweet about Claude AI and Eli Lilly

@GeniusGTX on X · AI agent predicted FDA approval and bought LLY

RentYourStocks retatrutide before and after

@RentYourStocks on X · 923K views · 22lbs lost in 29 days on retatrutide

Additional coverage: PharmExec, Endpoints News, Fierce Pharma, Reuters Health, Barron's, Seeking Alpha. All analyst targets are third party opinions sourced from public research notes and TipRanks (as at April 2026). Social posts are attributed to their original authors and shown as screenshots with engagement metrics. Tretidal is not affiliated with any source cited above. News links open in a new tab to the original publisher.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND GOVERNANCE

Built institutional from day one.

Tretidal is structured to meet the operational and regulatory expectations of wholesale and institutional capital. No corners cut on custody, compliance, or audit.

Australian unit trust

Wholesale clients only under section 761G. Cayman feeder added at scale for offshore capital.

AFSL compliant

Corporate Authorised Representative under a sponsoring AFSL holder. Compliant Information Memorandum on request.

Institutional custody

Prime brokerage relationships, segregated client accounts, multi broker failover, external audit partner.

Audited track record

Twelve month live trading record with transparent monthly reporting before any LP onboarding at Series A.

Algorithmic trading around pharmaceutical catalysts is a proven, repeatable strategy. RTW Investments returned +76 percent in 2025 trading pharma catalysts. Soleus Capital returned +47 percent on healthcare event driven strategy. ML models achieve 75 to 87 percent accuracy predicting FDA price reactions.

SOURCES: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR | NATURE SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | CNBC

INVESTOR ENQUIRIES

Request the Information Memorandum.

Tretidal is currently in formation. We are speaking with prospective cornerstone investors, family offices, and wholesale allocators ahead of the seed round.

What you will receive.

Qualified wholesale enquiries receive the full Information Memorandum, historical backtest methodology, factor library overview, and a scheduled briefing with the founder team.

Full Information Memorandum under NDA
Backtest methodology and Monte Carlo detail
Factor library overview and statistical validation
Structural and fee documentation
Direct briefing with the founding team

Thank you.

Your enquiry has been received. A member of the Tretidal team will respond within 48 hours with next steps and the Information Memorandum under NDA.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

Please read carefully.

The information on this site is intended for wholesale clients as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). By continuing to read or engage with any content below, you acknowledge that you understand the risks associated with investing in private investment vehicles and algorithmic trading strategies.

GENERAL DISCLAIMER

This website is provided for informational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, financial product, or investment strategy. Nothing on this website should be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, or investment advice. Prospective investors must consult their own independent legal, financial, and tax advisers before making any investment decisions.

AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES LICENCE

Tretidal Investment Partners Pty Ltd (ABN pending) does not currently hold its own Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Tretidal operates as a Corporate Authorised Representative under the AFSL of its sponsoring licence holder. Details of the authorising AFSL holder will be provided upon request and in any formal offer documentation. This website does not constitute financial product advice within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). No offer of financial products will be made until all required licensing, disclosure, and regulatory obligations have been satisfied. Any future offer will be made only to wholesale clients as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and will be accompanied by a compliant Information Memorandum.

ANALYST TARGETS AND FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

All analyst price targets referenced on this website (including those attributed to Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Leerink Partners, Bernstein, and others) are sourced from publicly available third party research and represent those analysts opinions as at the dates indicated. They are not Tretidal's projections and should not be interpreted as such. These targets may change without notice and may not be achieved. This website also contains forward looking statements regarding market size, clinical trial outcomes, and regulatory timelines. These involve substantial risks and uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to differ materially. Past performance of any asset, fund, or strategy is not indicative of future results.

RISK FACTORS

Investing in algorithmic trading strategies involves substantial risk of loss, including the potential loss of all capital invested. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Specific risks include but are not limited to: clinical trial failure or delay, regulatory rejection, technology malfunction, cybersecurity breach, market volatility, liquidity constraints, counterparty risk, key person risk, and changes in law or regulation. Investors should not invest more than they can afford to lose. This website does not purport to contain all information that a prospective investor may require. Any indicated backtest figures are hypothetical results from applying the Tretidal strategy to historical Eli Lilly daily price data. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations.